Thursday, March 6, 2014

2014 National League West preview

Earlier this week I predicted that the Texas Rangers would be the 2014 AL West Champions over the Los Angeles Angels. Today it's time to take a look at their National League counterparts...the NL West. This division has definitely gotten very interesting over the last couple of years, with a new ownership group buying the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Arizona Diamondbacks having success under Kirk Gibson, and the San Francisco Giants winning 2 World Series in 3 years. But who will come out on top in 2014? Let's take a look at each team:

First off...let's take a look at last year's division winners...the Los Angeles Dodgers. For the most part, the Dodgers didn't do much in terms of free agency or trades. The signed pitcher Dan Haren, a southern California native, after he had a sub-par year with the Washington Nationals. Haren did pitch very well down the stretch, but only after the Nationals were completely out of the NL East race. The Dodgers also signed Cuban infielder Alex Guerrero. This guy is a complete mystery to me. Scouts say he has the potential to be a 20+ home run hitter, but if you try to look at his numbers, they are hard to find. He was left off the 2013 Cuban team that played in the World Baseball Classic because of his outspoken desire to leave Cuba for the United States. Because of that, Guerrero sat out of the entire 2013 season. If he has the year that many scouts says he is capable of having, then the Dodgers will have added a very nice piece to their line up. Los Angeles did lose valuable depth as Michael Young decided to retire. They also lost second baseman Mark Ellis, who signed with St. Louis. But if Guerrero has a good year, Ellis will not be missed. The Dodgers also lost Chris Capuano, who signed with the Boston Red Sox. Once again, he probably won't be missed too much. So what are the keys for the Dodgers to repeat as division champions? First off they need Guerrero to have a big, breakout rookie season. They need his bat at the top of the lineup so he can help set up their big bats of Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez. The Dodgers also need Dan Haren to rebound from his bad year last year and be a solid #4 or #5 starter in their rotation. If Josh Beckett can ever find himself again and Matt Kemp get healthy and stay healthy, then that will be just a bonus for Los Angeles. All in all, I think the Dodgers have everything capable of winning the division again this year.



Next we take a look at the San Francisco Giants. The Giants did add a veteran pitcher in Tim Hudson to their rotation. Hudson knows how to pitch and also how to lead a young staff, as was seen in his time with the Atlanta Braves. Hudson just needs to stay healthy. They also added outfielder Michael Morse. Morse is a big dude with big power. His main problem, however, is consistency. If Morse can stay consistent and hit for average, AT&T Park will see a lot of long home runs hit out of it by Morse. One guy that should be a good bench player for the Giants is Tyler Colvin. Colvin signed a minor league deal with the Giants in the off-season and is expected to be on the major league roster as a bench guy. He played well when given the chance in Chicago for the Cubs. It'll be interesting to see if Colvin will get more playing time in San Francisco. The Giants lost Barry Zito, Chad Gaudin, and Andres Torres but it's nothing to write home about San Francisco has the talent to compete in the division. They need first baseman Brandon Belt to continue his success from last season, Buster Posey to build off a great 2013 season, and Pablo Sandoval needs to stay healthy. He came into camp after losing some weight in the off-season and it has shown. He just needs to keep that up throughout the season. As for pitching, Hudson needs to stay healthy and make at least 30-32 starts. The big pitching question mark for this team will be Ryan Vogalsong. He missed last season due to injuries. I'll be curious to see how he comes back this year.



Next we take a look at the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks fought all season long with the Dodgers for the division title only to fall back last in September. They have added some power to their bat when they acquired Mark Trumbo from the Los Angeles Angels. They also bolstered their pitching staff by adding starter Bronson Arroyo and closer Addison Reed. Arroyo should pitch well in that spacious Chase Field ballpark. Addison Reed pitched well on a bad Chicago White Sox team last year so it's only foreseeable that he will pitch well on a much better Diamondbacks team. The team did lose pitching prospect Tyler Skaggs to the Angels in the Mark Trumbo trade. They also traded away outfield prospect Adam Eaton to the White Sox and traded closer Heath Bell to the Tampa Bay Rays. Those moves, I feel, were great for the club. Will Skaggs live up to the hype? Who knows. Will Adam Eaton be the hitter they thought he could be? We'll just have to wait and see. But we know what Trumbo and Reed can do. So these trades were huge for Arizona. And let's not overlook Heath Bell being shipped to the Rays. That allowed the financial freedom to make the other trades. Arizona will be in the division hunt right down to the end of Trumbo can have a big year, Reed stays consistent as the closer, Arroyo can take advantage of the big ballpark, and starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy can stay healthy. This division is going to be fun to watch.



The Colorado Rockies are the next team I want to take a look at. They added some good pieces to go along with Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. They added veteran left handed first baseman Justin Morneau as well as acquired Brandon Barnes and Jordan Lyles from the Houston Astros in exchange for Dexter Fowler. Barnes will provide some speed to set up Tulowitzki and Morneau with several RBI opportunities this season. They also added Brett Anderson to the starting rotation after acquiring him from the Oakland A's. I fear that the Rockies lineup will be really good, but not have a strong enough pitching staff to equal things out. Anderson has been plagued with injuries for the last few seasons and it's hard for Colorado to get any good pitchers willing to come to the most notorious hitting ballparks in the game in Coors Field. The Rockies will struggle this year in many slug fest games. They will score a lot of runs, but give up a whole lot more.



The final team I want to look at is the San Diego Padres. This team was just horrendous last season...mainly because of their starting rotation.  They added Josh Johnson to the staff in the off-season. Now I'm 50/50 on this move. Johnson has been extremely injury prone for the last few seasons, however, he is determined to show all of baseball this season that he can still pitch very well. So there's a part of me that worries about him for the Padres, but then there's a part of me that likes his drive to prove he's healthy. If healthy, the Padres will have a real workhorse on the mound every 5th day. They also added Joaquin Benoit to the back end of their bullpen. This is a genius move on the Padres' part and one I didn't see coming.  Benoit has been one of the premiere set up men in all of baseball over the last couple of years in Detroit. He will do an excellent job getting the ball to Huston Street in the 9th or filling in for Street when he isn't available to pitch. Another piece the Padres added was Seth Smith. They traded away reliever Luke Greggerson to the Oakland A's in exchange for Smith. Smith is a good left handed hitting outfielder that will bolster a lineup that needed help. They had Chase Headley, but really needed another good bat and they found that in Smith. Now at the time, trading Greggerson hurt their bullpen, but they completely fixed that and then some by signing Benoit. Other notable losses for the Padres were Clayton Richards and Jason Marquis, but neither one had really done anything for this club the last couple seasons. A lot will need to go right for the Padres to compete in the NL West. They will need a career year out of Headley and Smith and they will need Josh Johnson to completely return to his Cy Young Award form. If all those things happen, the Padres might have a shot at being competitive in this division, but I wouldn't count on it.

2014 NL West Final Standings Predictions

LA Dodgers               96-66     - GB
SF Giants                   94-68     2 GB
Arizona D'Backs        88-74     8 GB
SD Padres                 75-87     21 GB
Colorado Rockies      67-95     29 GB

So that's my predictions for the National League West division in 2014. Next week we'll take a look at the Central Divisions. We'll take a look and see if I think Pittsburgh can repeat last season's success and if they cry baby Ian Kinsler and his Detroit Tigers will repeats as the AL Central Champs.

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